Will the automobile industry keep its key competitive advantage?
Between the decline of diesel and the emergence of electric motors, the automobile industry could lose one of its key competitive advantages: its expertise in drive trains. But there’s still everything to play for and the next few years will be decisive.
The decline of diesel to the benefit of petrol and the gradual emergence of electric vehicles mean that these traditional players must reposition and it is also opening the way for new players to enter the market.
Even if sales of electric vehicles currently remain marginal, there is no doubt that electric motors (either 100% electric, or hybrids to varying degrees) will be an inescapable part of the future. And electrification means disruption of the whole drive train value chain.
WHICH TECHNOLOGY WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET FOR ENGINES IN 2030?
(Minimum and maximum share of different technologies in production forecasts as a %)
The estimates for 2030 reveal the uncertainty of the forecasts (by IHS Markit, ECF, Roland Berger, Ricardo, Fraunhofer, PWC-Autofacts, LMC), but confirm the growth of hybrid and 100% electric technologies.
It should be noted that mild hybrid, included here in combustion, is predicted to represent between 20 and 40% of motors by 2030.
Interpretation of the graph: in 2030, the most conservative forecasts still say 71% combustion engines, as opposed to 12% for those predicting a rapid migration to electric and hybrid.